The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) have announced a revision in its 2015/2016 Calgary housing market forecast, which shows more optimism than expected by most industry observers.
The CMHC projected last November the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) would see 14,400 new housing starts in 2015 and only 12,800 starts in 2016.
The revised forecast now predicts 13,600 for 2015 and 12,100 for 2016.
Moreover, the original forecast for this year included 6,400 single-family and 8,000 multi-family starts, going to 6,300 and 6,500 respectively in 2016.
The new forecast now stated 6,100 single-family and 7,500 multi-family starts this year and respectively, 5,900 and 6,200 starts next year.
However, the apartment sector will see most of the decline in multi starts.
“Downside risks have increased since the previous forecast, due mainly to recent declines in oil prices,” said Lai Sing Louie, CMHC’s regional economist.
“As a result, we have widened the forecast ranges for housing starts, MLS sales and average MLS prices to reflect these risks.
“Lower oil prices will have a dampening effect on investment and economic growth (in) Alberta (that) will contribute to slower employment growth and net migration ... with key drivers less supportive of housing demand and supply levels elevated ... slowing housing demand.”
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